| 市場預計3月降息概率在50%左右，10年期美債收益率跌4.4BPs報4.037%，時薪同比增速維持在4.1%不變。並繼續每月950億美元的縮表進程。美聯儲將公布最新利率決議。” 此外， StoneX資深分析師Jerry Chen表示，到3月維持利率不變的概率為58.3%，截至周二（1月30日）收盤，目前來看，同時紅海危機可能導致全球通脹的反複， 北京時間2月1日（周四），市場預計1月新增17.3萬就業人口，本周五將公布的美國非農就業數據亦至關重要。可控的通脹和穩定的就<光算谷歌seostrong>光算谷歌推广業市場使得降息急迫性和潛在幅度降低。比起一個月之前的接近80%要低了不少 ，此前激進的降息預期正在經曆修正。降息25個基點的概率為2.1%。（文章來源：新華財經）一度押注2024年降息160BPs。累計降息50個基點的概率為0.8%。3年期美債收益率漲0.7BP報4.124%，市場在本周重要數據和議息會議之前觀望情緒較濃。累計降息25個基點的概率為40.9%，市場對降息的預期激進，失業率從3.7%小幅升至3.8%，30年期美債收益率跌6.3BPs報4.253%。 據美國財政部數據，對全年降息幅度的光算光算谷歌seo谷歌推广預期也從160BPs降至125BPs左右。然而，“近期強勁的經濟數據暗示軟著陸的概率正在升高，此後強勁的美國經濟數據又令市場降低了降息預期。美聯儲2月維持利率在5.25%-5.50%區間不變的概率為97.9% ，2年期美債收益率漲2.1BPs報4.347%，自2023年末美聯儲釋放鴿派信號後，前值21.6萬，長債維持偏強，因此市場普遍預期本月美聯儲將維持利率不變，5年期美債收益率跌1.4BP報3.975%，美債收益率漲跌不一， 另據CME“美聯儲觀察”，新華財經北京1月31日電（王菁）美債市場周二（1月30日）漲跌不一， |
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